Offseason Moves

We're back after a short hiatus. Rather than play catch up and give our comments on both the Finals and the Draft, we are just going to dive into the offseason and analyze some of the biggest moves that we have gone down so far. Below are the 15 biggest offseason moves (as of last week) in descending order, excluding free agent resignings. We only want to look at transactions that are going to reshape the NBA landscape.

15) Dallas Mavericks signs Gerald Green to a 1-year, $850K contract.

Kay: I know that some people are high on this guy's potential; but I just don't see it. True, he has crazy hops and athleticism, and can score in bunches. But he just don't have a good feel for the game. He makes just as many, if not more, bad plays as good plays. Generally, he looks lost out on the floor, and he's prone to chucking up bad shots and turning the ball over. He was signed by the Rockets last season after being cut by the T-Wolves but only played in 1 game. Ouch. The Mavs desperately need some youth, athleticism and scoring off of their bench, so for them it's a low risk gamble. I suppose worst case scenario, he rides the bench all year. Best case scenario, he provides the Mavs some scoring off the bench, and is good for the occasional highlight reel on ESPN. I don't have much else to say about this move. We just included it because we needed a 15th item. Hah!

14) Portland Trailblazers sign Rudy Fernandez to undisclosed contract. Memphis Grizzles sign Marc Gasol to a 3-year, $10 million contract.

Kay: Here we have a pair of talented International players coming into the NBA. I'd like to see them both succeed to reinforce the belief that the NBA is becoming a global sport and that there is plenty of excellent talent available overseas. I haven't seen either one play, but from what I've heard, they are both winners. Marc Gasol is a big man with a lot of skill. He's not very light on his feet, but he should be savvy enough to be effective in the league. He'll forge an interesting duo with Gasol in the middle. Center is a sparse position, so if Gasol proves to be half as talented as his brother, Memphis will have gotten a great deal. Meanwhile, Rudy Fernandez is a beast that has been named MVP in nearly every league that he's played in. He's generally seen as one of the best players outside of the NBA. He has a great basketball IQ. He can score in a variety of ways, but is also unselfish and eager to find opportunities for his teammates. He's a winner; and should be a valuable contributor to this young and up-and-coming Portland team. I heard he turned down a contract to play in Russia for like $10 million per year. Crazy. But if that's true, he's really dedicated to winning. I like that. He reminds me a little bit of Ginobilil based on his attitude and his track record overseas.

13) New Orleans Hornets sign James Posey to a 4-year, $25 million contract.

Kay: Wow. Nearly $6 million per year for Robert Horry-lite. Posey averaged roughly 7 points and 4 rebounds last year. I'm not sure he is worth that much money, but his departure is a crushing blow to the Celtics, who refused to give Posey a 4-year deal. The Celtics will have to scramble now and find someone in the free agency market to fill the void left behind. I think Barnes or Childress would fit in nicely on the Celtics team. Or they could even go after former Boston Celtics, Gomes or Davis, to replace Posey. The Hornets meanwhile get a nice piece that they hope will bring them over the top. I'm still not sold on this Hornets team, however. I think they overachieved last year. I don't think they have the depth or experiencing to compete in the West. And I'm not sure if this move will change that. They still did not address their issue of a weak SG. Peterson/Wells are not the answer, and I'm not sure Posey is either. He's more of a SF; and might be better suited to coming off the bench. Posey is the kind of guy that will bring a contending team over the top; but I'm not sure if the Hornets are that type of team.

12) Minnesota Timberwolves trades Marko Jaric, Antoine Walker, Greg Buckner & OJ Mayo to the Memphis Grizzlies for Mike Miller, Brian Cardinal, Jason Collins & Kevin Love.

Kay: What an ugly trade. You got teams trading bad contracts back and forth. And in the middle of the trade are 2 rookies with a lot of potential, but also a lot of question marks associated with them. Will Love be able to continue his dominance in a more physical league? Does Mayo have the maturity and mental toughness to be a star in this league? If I had to pick a winner in this trade, it would be Minnesota. Because they got the best player in the trade: Mike Miller. Granted, the T-Wolves aren't going anywhere next year, but Miller will get a lot of open shots thanks to Al Jefferson and Kevin Love. Those two guys are a disaster on defensive, but they should be able to score in bunches on the other side. On a side note I'm disappointed that the Gay Love connection wasn't given a chance. Heh. Memphis is now the home of Walker with his shimmy, and Jaric with his wifey Adriana Lima, who should be able to attract some new fans to the Grizzlies. Hah! Mayo and Gay form a potent 1-2 combination. They should be exciting to watch, even if they lose a lot of games. Neither of these teams will make much noise next year, so the overall significance of this trade is pretty low.

11) Miami Heat sign James Jones to a 5-year, $22 million contract. San Antonio Spurs sign Roger Mason to a 2-year $7.5 million contract.

Kay: Two low-key moves that could pay dividends. Miami desperately needed a 3pt shooter to space the floor, and punish teams for double-teaming Wade. James Jones will play the role that Kapono and Posey played on the champion Miami Heat squad. This Miami squad should have a nice bounce back season. Adding Beasley, Chalmers and Jones will be huge. If they can resign Marion or trade him for another nice piece, this team could challenge for a playoff spot. It's a huge improvement over the squad that they had last year, which was comprised of like all NBADL players. On the flip side, the Spurs sneakily sign Roger Mason before anyone had a chance to blink. He'll be a great fit for the Spurs, and should combine with Hill to form a nice backup backcourt. They are both young, athletic and can score in bunches; and should allow Parker and Manu to rest more. I like how the Spurs are finally adding some youth to their team. I expect Ian Mahimini to be called up from the NBADL, where he was a first teamer. He should be a solid big man off the bench for them. Too bad they could not get Tiago Splitter. Those 3 players should inject some youth and energy into this team. Along with their veteran core, this team should be able to contend for the next few years, to many people's dismay.

10) New York sign Chris Duhon to a 2-year, $12 million contract. Orlando Magic sign Michael Pietrus to an undisclosed contract.

Kay: Two very underrated moves. Chris Duhon gives the Knicks a pass-first PG, who can actually defend. He's a great for D'Antoni's system. He's also an excellent shooter. Definitely one of the better PG on the market. He's been stuck on the bench besides Hinrich for the past couple years, and now he is given a chance to shine. Notice that the contract ends in 2010. It looks like the Knicks want to take a run at Lebron James or Dwayne Wade. Duhon isn't going to push the Knicks to the playoffs, but he's a step in the right direction. I like what Donnie Walsh is thinking. If they can ship Randolph and Marbury off, I would consider this offseason a huge success. On the other side, Pietrus is a great signing for Orlando. He gives them some consistency at the SG spot finally. He's a great shooter, but unlike some of their other players, he's also a great defender. He's very athletic, can rebound, and can play multiple positions. He gives this team great versatililty, and will fit in well with the other guys. Orlando is close to being an elite team, but they need to either shore up the PG or PF positions. I'm not sure I like the idea of playing Lewis and Turkoglu together; players with comparable skill sets, and neither is a PF who can bang inside. And Nelson is too short, and too inconsistent to man the PG position as a full time job.

9) Portland Trailblazers trade Brandon Rush, Jarret Jack, Josh McRoberts to the Indiana Pacers for Jerryd Bayless and Ike Diogu.

Kay: From what I've seen so far, Portland made out like bandits in this trade. Jerryd Bayless is, by far, the best player in this trade. He's been dominating the summer league, and should be named the MVP. The general consensus is that he was a top 5 talent that strangely slipped in the draft. I think he'll be a great complement to Brandon Roy in the backcourt. Both guys can handle the ball and both can score efficiently. Ike Diogu will probably not see much burn, but he has some potential. On the flip side, the Pacers get the other Rush brother, and Jarret Jack, who will compete with TJ Ford for the starting PG spot. The Pacers needed a PG, so it seems strange that they would trade one away to get a combo PG in Jarret Jack. It seemed like a heavensent that Bayless fell to them. But they must have really saw something great in Brandon Rush. Either that, or they have complete faith in TJ Ford's ability to stay healthy and run the point. I suppose that for a rebuilding team like the Pacers you just want to stockpile as much talent as possible, and hope that they pan out. This helped this fill 2 needs instead of just one. How strange is it that there are brothers playing on the same team? How frequently has that happened (if ever)?

8) Brandon Jennings signs with Pallacanestro Virtus Roma of Italian Serie A.

Kay: Wow. In what could be the start of a new trend, Brandon Jennings elects to play a year overseas rather than play college ball. This is a decision that will piss off David Stern. But can you blame the guy? First, he'll get paid to play basketball for the next year. Second, he'll be able to play against professional players in another league and hopefully refine his skills more than if he just played college ball. Granted, there will be a lot of cultural shock, but it could help to toughen up his skin and make him ready for the NBA. And who knows, maybe he'll like playing overseas so much that he decides to stay over there. The NBA needs to realize that their one-and-done policy with the NCAA is a stupid idea. Why force kids to go to school for a year; especially when many of those kids end up just skipping classes and get accepted into college via shady methods? The players make the college teams tons of money, but have nothing to show for it themselves. Should they get paid? I don't know what the solution to this problem should be, but some changes need to be made. On a side note, Carlos Delfino signs a 3-year, $13.5 million contract for Khimki Moscow of Euro Cup. This is significant in that some players realize they can make more money overseas in than in the NBA, and have a better shot at fame and success.

7) New Jersey Nets trades Richard Jefferson to the Milwaukee Bucks for Bobby Simmons & Yi Jianlian.

Kay: On paper, this looks like a steal for the Bucks. They get the all-star SF that they've always coveted, and a second banana for Redd. And in return, all you had to get rid of was an expensive role player and a rookie that hasn't lived up to the hype yet. Not only can RJ score in bunches and defend, but he's an unselfish player and should be able to provide some leadership to this young team. You gotta like their chances in the Eastern Conference to make the playoffs. Williams/Redd/Jefferson/Villanueva/Bogut on paper is gonna score a ton of points. Of course, they could go with Sessions at PG, and either trade Williams for a more reliable PF or play him off of the bench in a Barbosa, Ginobilli, Terry or Gordon type of role. For New Jersey, this was a all up saving $ and preparing for a run at Lebron James in 2010. Simmons' contract is one year shorter than RJ and he is making $30 million less. Yi could turn out to be a solid starter; otherwise, it's a cheap short-term risk. He can maybe attract a larger asian audience to their stadium, at the very least. The Nets are trying to get younger but stay competitive. I would not be surprised to see Vinsanity traded in the upcoming seasons. They have some nice young talent on their team and are clearly in a rebuilding mode.

6) Golden State Warriors sign Corey Maggette to a 5-year, $50 million contract.

Kay: Is Maggette overpaid? Yes. But he's a consistent 20+ point scorer, and unlike other players on the Warriors lineup, he won't just sit around and take jump shots all day long. Maggette and Ellis should combine to a form a potent slashing duo. They should each average a ton of free throw attempts this year. Though we can all agree this was a knee jerk reaction to losing Baron Davis, and missing out on Elton Brand. I'm surprised they didn't make a run at Josh Smith, but I think most teams have settled with the idea that the Hawks will retain Josh Smith. They'd rather go after an unrestricted free agent, which is more of a sure thing. In addition to losing Pietrus, it looks like the Warriors are going to lose Barnes and Azubuike also. So they are suddenly very sparse at the swing positions. Maggette will take over a majority of those minutes (hopefully he can stay healthy). And hopefully Nelson will give Belinelli some burn. This should also free some more minutes for Randolph and Wright. Hopefully those guys can assert themselves and be productive. These young gun are the future of the Golden State team. I should also comment that the Warriors offered a contract to Turiaf, who gives them a nice bruiser at the PF position, and helps solidify their bench.

5) Indiana Pacers trades Jermaine O'Neal and Nathan Jawai to the Toronto Raptors for TJ Ford, Rasho Nesterovic, Maceo Baston and Roy Hibbert.

Kay: I like this move for both teams. Toronto realizes that they aren't going to get anywhere with their current squad, so they take a gamble and trade away Ford and Nesterovic for Jermaine O'Neal. This frees up more playing time for Calderon, which is a win-win. Both Ford and O'Neal are injury prone, however, so whoever manages to stay healthy will prove the winner in this trade. O'Neal and Bosh form a potent 1-2 punch in the middle for Toronto. If O'Neal returns to all-star form, they'll be competitive in the East. This should also allow them to play Kapono more minutes, who will greatly benefit from the double teams and open looks. The Pacers, meanwhile, get a replacement for Tinsley finally. They can cut off Tinsley from their team, which is a good move towards turning around this franchise. Nesterovic and Hibbert provide some depth for the Pacers in the middle. Both are skilled big man who should be able to contribute right away. The Pacers are a young team, and this trade gives them some young talent to play with. They have solid depth at every position now. I don't think it's enough to challenge for a playoff spot yet, but I like the direction this team is going.

4) Denver Nuggets trade Marcus Camby to the Los Angeles Clippers for a conditional 2nd Round Draft Pick.

Kay: Wow. Camby was traded for nothing. That's gotta be a harsh blow to your ego. He wasn't traded for a first round pick. Or even a second round pick. He was traded for the option to swap second round picks. Hah! Apparently, Denver cares more about saving some bucks than trying to win. Not that they were close to winning a title, any ways. Camby was their only decent defensive player, and his departure will create a huge hole in the Denver lineup. They now have to depend on Nene and Kenyon Martin, both injury prone players, to man the PF and C positions. Perhaps Denver felt pressured to play Nene more minutes because they gave him an inflated contract a year ago. On the flip side, the Clippers get a nice, affordable player to play at PF. It will be interesting to see how Camby and Kaman blend; but they should be a force on the defensive end. I suppose with Baron Davis, Eric Gordon, Tim Thomas in town, they need someone to rebound all of those missed shots. For the Clippers, it's a short-term gamble. He comes off the books in 2010, and should free up a ton of salary space, if they elect to make a run at one of the big guns. I would have preferred they go after Josh Smith, but they elected to go with the safe route and not pursue a restricted free agent, who will likely get matched by their current team.

3) Los Angeles Clippers sign Baron Davis to a 5-year, $65 million contract.

Kay: I would have liked this signing even more if Elton Brand had stayed with the Clippers. As is, the other LA team is a borderline playoff team at best. And Baron becomes the face of this franchise. His job will be to elevate the play of everyone around him and try to fill some seats, at the same time. Baron Davis and Eric Gordon sounds like a potent duo on paper, and most definitely an improvement over Knight and Mobley from a year ago. Luckily, the Clippers were able to acquire Camby, so he should take some of the pressure off of Baron. I expect Thornton and Kaman to have big seasons playing with Baron. And if they allow Baron to push the tempo, this team should be fun to watch and very high scoring. I'm not sure if they'll be able to make the playoffs, though. The West is tough and competitive; and I don't see this team as being very good defensively. The key will be whether Baron can stay healthy for the entire season. It's hard to argue with Baron's logic for leaving the Warriors. First, the Clippers offered him the most money, and second this gives him a chance to return home and be in Hollywood, where there are more non-basketball opportunities. It's hard to argue with that. It's not like the Warriors were a contender anyways.

2) Philadelphia 76ers signs Elton Brand to a 5-year, $82 million contract.

Kay: While I prefer the Clippers starting lineup with Brand in it over the 76ers lineup with Brand, you can't argue against taking more money, playing in the Eastern Conference, and moving closer to home. While the Clippers lineup would be stacked, they would not be guaranteed a playoff spot, and would struggle to get out of the first round. The Western conference is just that deep. In the East, he can elevate the 76ers to near elite status. They are definitely one of the top teams in the East with Boston, Detriot and Orlando. Brand gives the 76ers the inside/post scorer that they desperately needed last year in the playoffs, where they got beat by the Pistons. They are horrible in a half court set, and Brand should look to solve those problems. He instantly becomes this team's best player. He can score in bunches, rebound, defend, and draw double teams. Andre Miller should have a field day with all of his offensive weapons now. Dalembert should improve playing next to Brand in the middle. Young and Iggy should have more room to operate. They need to sign some shooters to take advantage of the open looks that Brand will give them.

1) Seattle Supersonics relocate to Oklahoma City... Sorta.

Kay: The biggest offseason move this year is not a player, but a team. Hah! The whole situation behind the relocation is quite confusing, so I will instead just post a link to a wikipedia article on the topic. I understand from a financial/business point of view, that moving the team to Oklahoma City is a good idea. Just look at the number of season tickets that they have already sold: 16,000. That's in only 2 weeks! Compare that to the Seattle Supersonics average attendance last season which was less than 18,000. And you can see that there is much greater support in Oklahoma City than Seattle for a basketball team. And unlike Seattle, Oklahoma City was able to approve the renovation of their arena (the Ford Center) to better accommodate the basketball team. But I just don't like how everything went down; all of the lawsuits, broken contracts/leases and the lies of the new ownership group. To take away a team from another city is just wrong. I'm also disappointed that the city of Seattle did not put up much of a fight to keep their team. They accepted a settlement with Clay Bennet and his group to void the lease that the team had with KeyArena to allow the team to relocate in return for a lump sum of money ($45 million) and also the right to retain the name and history of the Supersonics franchise. What's the point in having a team name and history, when you don't have a team?

Playoff Predictions: NBA Finals

Let the conspiracy rumors run amok. The Lakers and the Celtics have returned to the NBA Finals. It's a battle of the two most celebrated franchises in the league that have a combined 30 championships (out of 61) between them. This match-up is a wet dream for David Stern. They should get huge TV ratings, and hopefully will make fans forget about all of the marijuana and ref scandals. On one side, you have Kobe, who finally reaches the promised land without Shaq. He is ready to hog the spotlight all for himself. And you have Phil Jackson going for win #12 (he has 2 as a player). On the flip side, Garnett leads a group of hungry vets, including hall-of-fame bound Ray Allen and Paul Pierce, who are looking to get their first ring. Who will prevail? Will these teams meet up in the Finals again next year? Before we get to that, let me give my comments on last round's action.

Commentary on Conference Finals action: The Spurs and Lakers series was much closer than the 4-1 record indicates; though the better team won. The Spurs were not able to put up a consistent effort. They look tired, old and weren't able to hit the big shots when they needed to. Spurs choked away 20 and 17 point leads on the road. And lost a close game at home due to a non-call. While I thought that Barry was fouled, you can't blame one play for your team's lose. And besides, if not for some favorable calls earlier, they would not have been in that situation to win. Duncan was a beast in this series and made Gasol his whipping boy. Parker scored at will also, but Manu was a non-factor for the entire series, except for Game 3. They did not get consistent effort from their bench to win. On the other side, the Lakers role players hit big shots, and played with great energy and hustle. And that was the difference in the series. Bowen played excellent defense on Kobe, who still averaged like 30 PPG. That's bonkers. I think the reports of the Spurs demise are greatly exaggerated. As long as the Spurs have the big 3 and Poppovich as the coach, they will still be contenders.

In the other conference, Detriot put up a pitiful effort in Game 6 to give Boston the series win. It's like they just bent over and let Boston have their way with them. Like I predicted earlier, Boston finally broke out of their road slump, and won 2 games in Detriot, including Game 6. Ray Allen showed some signs of life. If their Big 3 are hitting on all cylinders, they will be tough to beat. Stuckey played well for a gimpy Billups, but all of these reports of him being a superstar in the making seem a bit premature. Pending some blockbuster trade, I don't see him cracking the starting 5 anytime in the near future. Perkins and Rondo were streaky, but had some huge numbers when it counted. Like I've said all along, it'll be the play of the role players that decides the winner of the league championship. Where was Rasheed Wallace all series long? Besides a profanity laced tirade, I did not hear much or see much of him during the series. He was a non-factor. Hamilton seemed like the only consistent player on the team; along with Prince to a lesser extent. With 3 straight Eastern Conference Finals loses, it looks like the Pistons are due for some changes.

Predictions for the NBA Finals:

LA Lakers (1)

Boston Celtics (1)

Maybe its because of my bias against Kobe or maybe its because I like to root for the underdog, but I think the Celtics will pull out a win in this series. But it'll be close. And a much more entertaining Finals than last year's demolition of the Cavs by the Spurs. Ray Allen is starting to peak at just the right time, and I think their Big 3 is much better than the Lakers. Odom has a tendency to disappear in games, while Gasol is marshmallow soft. Kobe and Fisher are the only proven gamers. Pierce, Garnett and Allen are hungry for their first title. The Celtics are the top defensive team in the league, and they have a supporting cast that is better than advertised. Don't be surprised to see guys like Posey, Cassell and Brown hit big shots for the Celtics. Differing from the Spurs, the Celtics have the right mix of youth and veterans, and much more offensive firepower. They won't be blowing any 20 point leads to the Lakers. But they will have to prove that they can play consistently on the road to take the crown.

Phil Jackson is a superior coach to Doc Rivers, there is no question about that. So I can understand why most experts pick the Lakers to win. In a 7-game series, making offensive and defensive adjustments, exploiting match-ups are the keys to winning the series. A key deciding factor in this series will be how the Celtics elect to defend against Kobe. Do they play Kobe like the Spurs, and try to keep him off the free throw line and make him work for all of his points. Or do they decide to play like the Wizards, beat him up a bit and try to tire him out come the 4th quarters? Assuming that Paul Pierce takes on the task of guarding Kobe for most of the game, will he still have any energy left on the offensive end? Posey will no doubt play a big role in defending Kobe. On the flip side, let's assume that Pierce and Garnett get theirs no matter what. A key for the Lakers will be shutting down Ray Allen. Are Kobe and Vujacic up to the task? Two forgotten role players that could play a key role in the series, if they are healthy, are Ariza on the Lakers and Tony Allen on the Celtics. Both are young, quick, active defenders that can guard the other team's stars for short stretches of time.

It'll be interesting to see how Gasol matches up against Garnett. Two very good players that have a reputation of faltering in the clutch and being soft. The Celtics have to be aware of the outside shooting by the Lakers. Fisher, Bryant, Radmanovic, Vujacic, Farmar, Walton are all 3pt threats. Walton could be an X-factor for his team. He's a solid passer, provides hustle and just has a knack for making big plays when it matters. For the Celtics, it'll be interesting to see how their PG spot pends out. Rondo is lightning quick and is a difficult matchup for anyone. But if his jumper is faltering, don't be surprised to see House or Cassell step in. Though a bit inconsistent, Perkins can be a game changer. His Game 5 stats against the Pistons were ridiculous. The Celtics have homecourt advantage, which could be the deciding factor in this series, where the teams are pretty evenly matched. If it comes down to a game 7, which I'm hoping it does, you have to like the Celtics chances. The home team wins over 80% of the time. The Lakers with Bynum maybe the team of the future, but I like the Celtics chance this year. --- Celtics in 7

2008 Mock Draft a.k.a. Where 2% matters....

The Miami Heat may have been hoping for the number one overall pick last night as the ping pong balls jumbled around. Dwyane Wade, their superstar, represented the team as they made their selection, hoping to get the same kind of luck he brought South Beach when they drafted him number five in 2003.

However, it was the "Baby Bulls" potentially getting first crack at the top college performers when they landed the first pick despite just a 1.7 percent chance of doing so.
That unlikely twist actually could end up benefiting both teams.

The Chicago Bulls have lacked a low post scorer since...well ever (Ok Elton Brand before 2001). Michael Beasley has the potential to bring the kind of inside rebounding and scoring presence they desperately need to go with that wing heavy roster. Chris Duhon is a free agent and Kirk Heinrich was inconsistent last year, a big reason the Bulls struggled. Derrick Rose, a Chicago product, will be tempting, but ultimately Beasley just seems to make too much sense to pass up.

The Heat, might actually be in a better position to upgrade their team despite having the second overall pick. Much like Seattle last year simply had to take the "other" guy, the Heat will gladly take Derrick Rose second as he is actually the player they would likely have taken with the first overall pick.

If the Bulls do take Rose first, the Heat will be able to package their pick, perhaps with Shawn Marion, and get a veteran low post scorer (Pat Riley REALLY wants Elton Brand and the Clippers believe he will leave if he does not opt out of his contract this offseason).
Despite their obvious struggles last season, a healthy Wade and either Rose or low post scorer X will be exciting if nothing else.

Keeping Flash and Shawn Marion while getting Rose could be the ideal scenario for next season and could make the Heat dangerous to once again challenge for the division.
For the rest of the teams in the draft, much still must be decided. With pre-draft camps, workouts, and interviews, we must take a wait and see approach. If the draft were to happen tomorrow, here is what it may look like:

1.) Chicago Bulls - Michael Beasley F Kansas State
Bulls must add toughness inside and Beasley's scoring will only make the "Baby Bulls" more dangerous.

Rose will certainly draw consideration, but ultimately Jim Paxon will likely decide Beasley is a considerable upgrade over Drew Gooden and Tyrus Thomas. Beasley makes the most sense, but as we know, the NBA rarely does.

Rose seems to be the sexy pick, but Beasley will absolutely dominate pre-draft workouts and make Tyrus Thomas, Joakim Noah, and Drew Gooden look like Mark Madsen.

Player comparison: Carmello Anthony

2.) Miami Heat - Derrick Rose PG Memphis








Anyone brave enough to watch the Miami Heat last season saw their offense was in disarray most of the time. Players stood around and watched a hobbled Flash go one on five. When he did pass the ball, his teammates couldn't make shots.

Rose would join his fellow Chicagoian Wade in the backcourt and create one of the most dynamic guard combos in the league. If it looks like Rose is the #1 pick, expect Pat Riley to be on the horn, trying to move this pick, particularly to L.A. (Nothing Riles does suprises me)


Player Comparison: Jason Kidd

3.) Minnesota Timberwolves - Brook Lopez C Stanford

While Lopez may not be the third best player in this year's draft, he will be a better fit with the T-Wolves than a guard like Jerryd Bayless or OJ Mayo.

Al Jefferson quietly put in one of the best seasons in the league down low (Fantasy Stud!!), but he gets little too no help inside. Lopez would bring strength on the block as well as a feathery touch (See the turnaround jumper to beat Marquette in the Tourney).





Jerryd Bayless could work too, but he is too much a shoot first point guard, and they already have two of those.


Player Comparison: Um..... (any suggestions)


4.) Seattle SuperSonics (Or whatever they're gonna be called) - OJ Mayo SG USC




The Sonics don't have a true point guard. This is true, but Jerryd Bayless is not a true point guard either.

Jeff Green can play point forward and Luke Ridnour, when healthy, has proven to be adequate (Plus how hard can it be? Pass the ball to Kevin Durant. Let him shoot. Repeat).

Mayo has unlimited capabilities as a scorer, but might be the best perimeter defender at the shooting guard position in this class. Mayo would take pressure off of Durant by spreading the defense.

I like Mayo over Bayless in this spot, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Bayless taken.

Player Comparision: reminds me a little bit of Kobe Bryant and/or D-Wade.

5.) Memphis Grizzlies (Thank you so much for Pau) - Anthony Randolph PF LSU

This now puts Memphis in a difficult position. They would really like to see Lopez fall after trading away Pau Gasol to my beloved L.A. Lakers (Did I already say Thank You Memphis?).

The Grizzlies have a glut of point guards which means Jerryd Bayless makes little too no sense here.

Randolph will add tremendous length alongside Rudy Gay and if he can get stronger, has the type of explosive athleticism to be a solid rebounder and shot blocker. He won't be Gasol anytime soon, but with talent on the perimeter, the Grizzlies must look to add low post fire power.

Player Comparison: Rudy Gay and Tayshaun Prince

6.) New York Knicks - Jerryd Bayless PG Arizona

Another shoot first point guard for the New York Knicks? Well, not exactly, but Mike D'Antoni will need to get a point guard to groom for his system.

Bayless already has a smooth scoring ability and D'Antoni will have to hope he can teach him how to be unselfish and pick his spots like Steve Nash.

Bayless has a similar skill set to current Knick Stephon Marbury, but won't make that kind of money and has the attitude to be molded into a solid point guard in the NBA.

7.) Los Angeles Clippers (They'll have this pick for about 5 minutes)- Danilo Gallinari SF Italy

Corey Maggette could opt out of his deal and Quinton Ross is a restricted free agent.

Gallinari has the body and the passing skills that would make Toni Kukoc proud, although he is not the long-range shooter Kukoc was.

He can convert oops as well as he can throw them and his feel for the game at only 19 gives him outstanding upside.

The Clippers continue to rebuild and with injury issues lingering for Shaun Livingston, Russell Westbrook or D.J. Augustine could be options here as well.

8.) Milwaukee Bucks - (Sleeper for R.O.Y.) Eric Gordon SG Indiana

New GM John Hammonds will have to decide what direction this Milwaukee team will be headed in. With Bogut, Villanueva, and Yi inside, the Bucks could look to build around their interior players.

Additionally, their most valuable trade chip is Michael Redd (Rumored to be heading to Lebron .. er the Cavs) and with all the money they just paid to Mo Williams and Charlie Bell, it might be time to trade the face of their franchise.

Eric Gordon has the kind of fantastic outside touch and possesses a better dribble drive game than Redd. If the Bucks can find a willing trade partner, Gordon and whoever they can get for Redd could make them tough much sooner than trying to simply build around Redd.

9.) Charlotte Bobcats - Kevin Love PF UCLA

Kevin Love reminds me a ton of Anthony Mason, only without the attitude (Great if we are talking about the Knicks' Mason, but not the Bucks).

The Bobcats have Gerald Wallace and Emeka Okafor in their front court and Love would create easy buckets for those guys with his cerebral ability to find his teammates.

There are two point guards and maybe a center ahead of Love, but the Bobcats have depth at point guard. If they don't think they can keep Emeka Okafor, DeAndre Jordan makes sense, but Larry Brown would rather have a guy who can help right away.

10.) New Jersey Nets - DeAndre Jordan C Texas A&M

After trading Jason Kidd, this Nets team did flirt with a playoff birth, but they are clearly rebuilding and should do so around Devin Harris and Richard Jefferson.

Now we're hearing Carmelo Anthony could be on his way to New Jersey with Marcus Camby for Richard Jefferson and Marcus Williams, but I can't believe the Nuggets would trade one of the top ten players in the league for so little.

Nenad Krstic has been hurt and was never strong inside. They could lose DeSagna Diop and Stromile Swift to free agency and will have very little inside.

Jordan has the body of Dwight Howard, but no where near the polish. With the best players on the board point guards, Jordan makes the most sense for a franchise needing a low post presence.

11.) Indian Pacers - D.J. Augustine (My personal choice for sleeper R.O.Y.) PG Texas

Jamaal Tinsley has been nothing but problems since he came to the Pacers. Jermaine O'Neal's days appear to be numbered in Indiana and D.J. Augustine could pick up guys like Danny Granger and help turn them into premier players.

He can create his own shot by getting to the rim and can get white hot from deep. He can run a pro offense and has passing abilities to distribute the ball. Augustine would be a steal for the Pacers and an ideal fit here at 11.

12.) Sacramento Kings - Russel Westbrook PG UCLA

I am not as sold on Westbrook as others seem to be, but the Kings really need a floor leader since trading Mike Bibby and Wesbtrook fits the bill.

He can come off the bench early on and play solid defense. He can straight handle the rock and get to the rim.

Reggie Theus ought to know how to coach guards and with scorers like Kevin Martin already in place, he will not have to carry the offensive load. Augustine would be better because of his experience, but he probably won't fall this far.

13.) Portland Trail Blazers - Joe Alexander F West Virginia

Players like Donte Green and Darrell Arthur could be good fits, both with huge upside, but ultimately the toughness and versatility of Alexander should win out.

Alexander reminds me of a Dirk Nowitzki only with a backbone and some mental toughness. He can handle the ball, really pass, and will take the big shot. He could be a valuable contributor off the bench for the Blazers next year.

There are some talented bigs available here, but with Aldridge in place and Oden coming back (presumably), Alexander or Greene make the most sense here.

14.) Golden State Warriors - Darrell Arthur PF Kansas

The Warriors will love Arthur's versatility, able to play the three or the four at 6'10''. He has tremendous feet and agility and can really score on the block out to 15 feet with his jumpshot.
He uses his length to block shots, although he is not exceedingly strong against bigger players inside.

Despite his age, he probably has more polish than Brandon Wright and expect him to compete for playing time, if not a starting role on this wing heavy team.

Playoff Predictions: Conference Finals

Commentary on Second Round action: Sweet. I got 4 out of 4 right in this round. Not too bad. Though I did get the number of games horribly wrong in the Boston vs Cleveland series. I thought that Boston would have finally been able to overcome their road woes. But how crazy would it be if Boston makes it to the Finals, or even wins an NBA Championship, without winning a road game? If Ray Allen had played better this series would have been over much quicker. Game 7 was a classic. Paul Pierce vs Lebron James has been one of the highlights of this year's playoffs. I don't see Cleveland making the NBA Finals again unless they overhaul their roster; and in a good way. Trading for Ben Wallace and Wally World was not the answer. Lebron James is a one-man wrecking crew. It reminds me earlier Kobe or T-Mac teams. I'm surprised how easily Detriot beat Orlando, given the injury to Chauncey Billups. But that goes to show you the importance of defense and experience. Orlando needs a true PG or PF in order to compete in the East. Prince's block on Turkoglu was reminiscent of his earlier block against Reggie Miller. Clutch!

The Lakers beat the Jazz in 6 games, just like I predicted. Utah could not win one on the road. Speaking of road struggles, how bonkers is it that the home team has a 22-3 record in the semi-finals round. That just shows you the importance of home court advantage and playing well in the regular season. If Boozer had played better in this series, who knows what would have happened. Deron Williams played brilliantly, but has been overshadowed by Paul this year. Utah is a few pieces short of being a contender. But you have to like their chances in the future though because they are a young team and have a great coach. They along with New Orleans are the future of the Western Conference. I'm not quite sold on Portland yet. What can I say about the Spurs. They stepped up their game and won a huge game 7 on the road. It was the first time they've come back from an 0-2 or a 2-3 deficit. It was even more impressive given their margin of defeat in the previous games in New Orleans. Manu and Parker played huge, and while Duncan did not put up huge stats, his passes out of double teams led to a lot of open 3's by their role players. Their window of opportunity has not closed quite yet. Chris Paul and David West will need more help in order to make a run at a championship and join elite company.

Predictions for the Conference Finals:

LA Lakers (1)

San Antonio Spurs (3)

It's a coin toss for me, but I think the defending champions will return to the NBA Finals (the first time that they've accomplished that goal in back-to-back years). These two teams have plenty of experience playing one another, and I think it will come down to defense and the play of their role players. Both teams are excellently coached; but I prefer the Spurs Big 3 over the Lakers, and I like their edge in experience (having played together for longer). If they fall down 0-2 in Los Angeles, they may not be able to recover from the hole however. So these first couple of games are crucial. Their short layover could be disastrous; as this is an old team that plays better with a lot of rest. I expect Duncan to have a huge series, if the Lakers elect to single-cover him. It will be harder to get their role players involved, however. Manu is always an X-factor for this team. On the Lakers side, Odom needs to stay aggressive and exploit the mismatches. No one on the Spurs can defend him. Kobe and Gasol will get theirs; but they will need to get their role players involved early and often to win. I know that everyone wants a Lakers vs Celtics Finals, but I'm going to go against the grain and pick the Spurs. How can you not root for the defending champions? --- Spurs in 7

Boston Celtics (1)

Detriot Pistons (2)

While Boston has struggled on the road throughout the first two series, I still like their chances to make it to the Finals. I predict they will finally win at least 1 road win. I think the difference maker will be Billups' health. If he comes back at full strength, I might have to switch my prediction. I'm not sure that Stuckey is ready to lead a team to the NBA Finals. On the flip side, Rondo is the X-factor in this series. But the key match-up will be KG vs Wallace. They are the heart and soul for their respective teams. Boston needs to get a better effort out of Ray Allen, also. Contrary to what many people are saying, I don't think that Detriot's bench is that much better than Boston's. Boston has Cassell, House, Allen, Posey, House, Davis, Powe. They've been pretty solid throughout the playoffs. Both teams play excellent defense, so I think it will come down to clutch plays by their superstars. And I like the Big 3 in Boston in this case. Pierce (against Prince) and Hamilton (against Allen) will need to play big for their respective teams. It should be an exciting, competitive series between these teams. --- Boston in 7

Kobe gets MVP, and the win.

Where do I begin? Maybe with Kobe finally getting a well-deserved M.V.P. trophy? Or maybe with Charles Barkley's prediction that the Jazz would come out fired up, ready to spoil the M.V.P. celebration? Or possibly, if the Laker's would get some REBOUNDS this game???!!!!

I'll start with Sir Charles. Watching Inside the NBA a few nights ago, Barkely made the comment that when he won the Poldhoff award, he had a horrible game and they ended up losing as well, (Not really what a Laker fan wants to hear). Kenny Smith chirped in and also mentioned that when David Robinson won the award the year after Hakeem got it and they met in the playoffs, Robinson didn't mention the Dream in his acceptance speech, when speaking about all the great big men that had won the award before him. The Dream promptly went out and DESTROYED the Admiral in the series and told Smith: "I'm going to his house to get my trophy."

Now don't get me wrong, I don't think there were any M.V.P. candidates on the Jazz squad this year that would come out and give other-wordily performances, but with Deron Williams on the opposing team, along with Carlos Boozer who on Tuesday said he was going to: "Try and spoil the party on Wed", you kinda have to sweat a little bit. But I digress, on to the game.

The game started out exactly how I didn't want it too, with the Jazz coming out tough, playing aggressive and making shots and grabbing boards like you'd expect a Jerry Sloan coached team to do. Mister Andre "My wife let's me get a free pass every year" Kirilenko comes out and shows flashes of what made people waste a high fantasy league draft pick on him in years past, he hit's some jumpers, gets a few swats, and this game is close in the early going.

You can tell from the early going that D-fish and Pau know they are going to have to put buckets on the board early and often tonight to secure a 2-0 lead. I don't really mention Lamar Odom needing to contribute, because he's been the definition of consistent on both ends of the floor for the first six games of the Playoffs (Does anyone else besides me think he's feeling guilty about Bynum getting injured by landing on his foot?).

Utah is leading 13-12 in the first quarter, when the Kobe and Co decide to go on a 13-0 run, with the newly crowned M.V.P. scoring 6 of those 13 points. It is at this point that you realize why Utah sucks so bad away from Energy Solutions Arena. Seriously, aside from Williams, AK-47 and Milsap, no one else looks like they care less about the game at hand (However, 7 Utah players end up in double figures, odd). The Laker's are doing a great job of disrupting Utah's flow. Boozer, who has been channeling his inner Karl Malone with all his cheap shots has been getting whistled for pretty much every thing he does, thus limiting his output for yet another game. Laker's lead by 14 at the half 63-49 and you kinda get the feeling that the series is going back to Utah 2 games to none.

Fast forwarding a bit, the Lake show coasts in the 3rd quarter and it isn't until around the 6 minute mark in the 4th that the Jazz show some signs of life and whittle a double digit lead down to single digits. Seriously, if D-Will wasn't running the point for this team, it'd be real ugly folks. The "machine" Sasha Vujacic wets a couple of jumpers and the lead is back to double digits again. Fish hits a trifecta, and Kobe tops off the night with a sick dime to Gasol for the dunk. Game....OVER.

I'm not going to say this series is over, but Utah is going to have to get a win in the Staples center in order to win, and by the looks of the first two games, they'll need an M.V.P. performance of their own. And Utah fans, under any circumstances, DO NOT BOO DEREK FISHER!!!